Charts and Graphs:
Dave's Mom's Pies
One of my favorite Late Show with David Letterman traditions occurs each Thanksgiving, when Dave fires up the satellite and chats with his Mom (Dorothy), and attempts to guess what kind of pies she has made for Thanksgiving dinner.
| Year | Dorothy's Pies | Dave's Guesses
(correct guesses in red) |
|---|---|---|
| 1993 | Pumpkin Cake | (no details available) |
| 1994 | Pumpkin Pie
2 Cherry Pies |
pumpkin
sugarcream mincemeat cherry apple |
| 1995 | Pumpkin Pie
Cherry Pie |
pumpkin
onion |
| 1996 | Cherry Pie
Hickory Nut Pie |
pumpkin
rhubarb cherry pecan sugarcream fig and date pie (Paul) hickory nut (Dave) |
| 1997 | Coconut Butterscotch Pecan Pie
Cherry Pie Stuffing Head of Dave* |
pumpkin
mincemeat |
| 1998 | Rhubarb Pie
Pumpkin Pie |
cherry
apple blueberry peach pecan rhubarb (Paul) pumpkin (Dave) |
| 1999 | Pumpkin Pie
Raspberry Chiffon Pie |
pumpkin
gooseberry blueberry raspberry |
*Okay, technically "Stuffing Head of Dave" isn't exactly a pie, and probably Dorothy didn't make it, but I'm going to count it anyway because I feel like it.
Dave's Mom's Thanksgiving Pie Frequency Distribution
| Flavor | #Pies |
|---|---|
| Pumpkin | 5 (one of these was actually a cake) |
| Cherry | 5 |
| Hickory Nut | 1 |
| Coconut Butterscotch Pecan | 1 |
| Stuffing Head of Dave | 1 |
| Rhubarb | 1 |
| Raspberry Chiffon | 1 |
| Total | 15 |
Bar Graph of Dave's Mom's Pie Frequency Distribution
Here is the distribution in the form of, what else, a Pie Chart
Dave's Guesses
Here is a bar graph illustrating the frequency of incorrect and correct pie-guesses by Dave. No information as to Dave's guesses is available for 1993. I have not included Paul's two guesses (Paul got one wrong in 1996, and one correct in 1998).
Overall, Dave has taken 25 pie-guesses, of which 8 (32%) were correct. This is illustrated in the following pie chart.
Recommended Strategy for Dave and Dave's Mom
Given that a full 1/3 of Thanksgiving pies baked by Dave's Mom are pumpkin, and 1/3 cherry (refer to the pie chart of the pie frequency distribution), and that there has never been a year without at least one pie from the set {cherry,pumpkin}, Dave should be able to increase his percentage of correct guesses by always making his first two guesses pumpkin and cherry. With this strategy, chances are extremely good that at least one of his first two guesses will be correct. If there is a pumpkin pie but no cherry, or vice versa, he should pretty much resort to random guessing for the remaining pie, as there is no discernible pattern for the non-cherry/non-pumpkin pies.
However, a high percentage of correct guesses is not necessarily Dave's main goal. His primary goal, of course, is to entertain America (and our international friends). In that case, the best strategy for Dave is to do what he has always done: have a nice chat with his Mom, and guess whatever pies he feels like guessing.
The best strategy for Dave's Mom, to make it harder for Dave to guess (and hence more entertaining) would be to bake two different pies next time, the more unusual the better, with neither from the set {cherry,pumpkin}.
Update
2000
In the year 2000, Dorothy baked a pumpkin pie and an apple pie, continuing the pattern of one traditional (pumpkin or cherry) pie, and one "unusual" pie (anything else).
Dave's guesses:
- Pumpkin - yes!
- Berry - no
- Key Lime - no
- Cherry - no
- Apple - yes!
2001
In 2001, Dorothy baked a pumpkin pie (traditional), and a lemon chiffon pie (exotic). It's worth noting that Dorothy has yet to repeat an exotic (non-cherry, non-pumpkin) pie.
Dave's guesses for 2001:
- Pumpkin - yes!
- Paul guesses Rhubarb - no
- Blueberry - no
- Peach - no
- Apple - no
- Lemon Meringue - well, close enough for partial credit.
During the guessing, Dave also asked his Mom if she had baked his favorite pie (no), but he did not count this as an actual guess. He also asked if the second pie was made from an out of season ingredient from Dorothy's freezer (no).
What is Dave's favorite pie, you might ask? Well, he has said on the show that his favorite pie is cherry. However, in Dorothy's cookbook, she explains that as a child, Dave's favorite was chocolate chiffon pie, which he liked so well that she would bake it for his birthday instead of cake. (I love the image of young Dave blowing out birthday candles on a pie.) Dorothy still bakes Dave a pie for his birthday each year, but since she can't ship a chocolate chiffon pie (it would be a mess by the time it got there), she now bakes Dave his second favorite pie, cherry. Perhaps cherry has now displaced chocolate chiffon as Dave's favorite because it's what his Mom now bakes for his birthday.
Oh, one more thing! Donz's records for 1993 were a little sketchy. He had Dorothy down as baking a "pumpkin cake" and had no information as to Dave's guesses. Now, I had remembered a much more complicated, multi-ingredient cake involving pumpkin and several other things. I'm pretty certain that I watched that year's Thanksgiving show with my brother Jim, and when the dessert was revealed, we both agreed that Dave had pretty much no chance of guessing it correctly. But, all Donz had in his records for 1993 was "pumpkin" or maybe "pumpkin cake". However, on the 2001 Thanksgiving episode, Dave read a list of past pies, including the 1993 entry: "Orange Pumpkin Pie with Whipped Cream and Hickory Nuts". I think it was actually an "Orange Pumpkin Cake with Whipped Cream and Hickory Nuts", but either way, I think I am completely vindicated on this.
I also seem to remember Dave guessing pies over the phone back on Late Night, which has recently been (sort of) confirmed from one of Donz's This Dave entries from 1990 or so, despite Donz having denied this when I questioned him about Late Night pie guessing when I first did the Pie Charts and Graphs.
2002
In 2002, Dorothy baked a pumpkin pie and a raspberry pie, continuing the pattern of one traditional (pumpkin or cherry) pie, and one exotic pie (anything else). For the first time in Late Show history, the exotic pie was a repeat. (She previously baked a raspberry pie in 1999.)
Dave's guesses for 2002:
- Apple - no
- Pumpkin - yes!
- Apple - no
- Cherry - no
- Strawberry - no
- Raspberry - yes!
2003
In 2003, Dorothy bake a pecan pie and an apple pie. That's right. No pumpkin. No cherry. Two exotic pies! Dave was as surprised as the rest of us. He guessed the two traditional pies, pumpkin and cherry, and then started in on some random guesses, clearly distressed that there was no traditional pie. Eventually Dave became so desperate that he started reading off pies from the list provided by the staff, rattling off guesses in rapid succession so quickly that I gave up on trying to write them all down. At one point he named apple and kept right on going; Dorothy had to tell him to back up. He finally needed a hint ("Think nuts") before getting pecan.
2004
In 2004, Dorothy returned to the pattern of one traditional and one exotice pie. She baked a pumpkin pie and a chocolate chiffon pie with graham cracker crust. Before guessing, Dave asked if the pies were pretty much straight forward, or if she had any "specialty" pies. Dorothy replied that there's one she has never made before for Thanksgiving. Dave: "I'm screwed!"
Dave's guesses for 2004:
- Pumpkin - yes!
- Louisiana Rhubarb Mincemeat Gumbo - no
- Dave asks for a hint. Dorothy tells him it's a pie he always wanted for his birthday. Those of us playing along at home immediately yelled out "Chocolate Chiffon"!
Dave: "This pie is a Chocolate Chiffon Pie with Graham Cracker Crust" - yes!
